The NASCAR Cup Series championship will be decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend. Kyle Larson, driving for Hendrick Motorsports in a Chevrolet, sits atop the standings with a 67-point advantage over Christopher Bell and a 70-point edge on Denny Hamlin. With a maximum of 76 points available from the final event, the math looks favorable for Larson, yet the margin is thin enough that a major mishap could hand the title to a challenger.
Every driver who takes the green flag receives at least one point, and the tiebreaker rules favor Larson over both Bell and Hamlin. This means that if Larson collects nine points or more, his championship is locked regardless of what his rivals achieve. The situation is further clarified by looking at the biggest point swings of the season: Hamlin never out-scored Larson by more than 43 points in a single race, while Bell’s largest gain was a 46-point swing at Phoenix.
How Kyle Larson can seal his third championship
Larson needs to accumulate at least nine points in the Homestead event. The easiest route is to earn eight stage points – for example, finishing third in either Stage 1 or Stage 2, or placing as low as seventh in both stages. Even without strong stage performance, a finish of 28th or better in the overall race will automatically give him the required point total. If he captures the fastest-lap bonus, the requirement drops by one point, meaning seven stage points or a 29th-place finish would also be sufficient.
Starting from fourth on the grid, Larson can aim for clean runs through the two stages, avoid unnecessary contact, and preserve his equipment for the final dash. The championship tiebreaker, based on the number of race wins throughout the season, already sits in his favour, so the primary goal is simply to stay out of the pits with a respectable finish.
What Christopher Bell must accomplish if Larson falters
Bell, starting from sixth, faces a steep uphill climb. To stay in contention, he must win the race outright and collect at least 14 of the 20 possible stage points. If he also grabs the fastest-lap point, he can get by with 13 stage points. Missing an eighth-place finish in Stage 1 eliminates his chances outright, regardless of the final race result.
If Larson finishes 28th or higher, or gathers eight stage points, Bell’s efforts become irrelevant because the championship would already be decided. Consequently, Bell’s strategy hinges on a perfect race: leading the majority of laps, dominating both stages, and securing the extra point for the quickest lap.
Denny Hamlin’s route to the title should Larson stumble
Hamlin, lining up second, needs an even more demanding performance. He must take the checkered flag and earn at least 17 of the 20 stage points. With the fastest-lap bonus, the requirement shrinks to 16 stage points. A finish worse than fifth in Stage 1 removes him from contention regardless of later results.
Like Bell, Hamlin is safe if Larson earns a 28th-place finish or better, or picks up eight stage points. Therefore, Hamlin’s only realistic path is to dominate the entire event, win both stages, and grab the fastest lap – a tall order that highlights just how fragile the championship picture remains.
Points system at Homestead explained
A race victory awards 55 points. The runner-up receives 35 points, and each subsequent position drops by one point down to 36th place, which still earns a single point. Positions 36 through 40 all score one point each. Each stage win is worth 10 points, decreasing by one point per position until the tenth place, which earns one point. The fastest-lap bonus adds another single point to a driver’s total.
This structure means that a driver who wins both stages and the race can accumulate a maximum of 76 points (55 + 10 + 10 + 1). Conversely, a driver who merely starts the race without scoring stage points still walks away with at least one point. Understanding these numbers clarifies why nine points are enough for Larson, while Bell and Hamlin require near-perfect performances to stay alive.
