The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) posted a 0.7% increase during the first half of October, lifting the benchmark to 207.4 points. Compared with the same period a year earlier, the index is 2.2% higher, suggesting a rebound after the softness that plagued the third quarter. The movement reflects adjustments for vehicle mix, mileage and seasonal effects, while the raw, non-adjusted wholesale price level actually fell 2% from September, though it remains 0.5% above the October-last-year figure.
Supply dynamics more influential than demand
Dealer inventories have contracted modestly, with wholesale days’ supply dropping from 28.7 at the end of September to 28.2 days by mid-month. This shrinkage narrows the year-over-year gap from 2.5 days to roughly one day, indicating that the market is becoming leaner. Senior Director Jonathan Gregory of Cox Automotive observes that the tighter supply, rather than an surge in dealer buying, is the primary engine behind the firmer values. He notes that sales conversion climbed a fraction to 54.3%, marginally above the prior-year level, while retention slipped to 98.9%, still within the range typical for this season.
Segment-by-segment performance
Among vehicle categories, compact cars led the year-over-year charge, posting a 5.6% price increase. Midsize cars shifted from decline to modest growth, while the luxury segment slipped just beneath its October-last-year level after a strong first-half run. Pickup values continued to lag, showing no meaningful rebound.
Electric vehicles displayed a mixed picture. The EV Index is up 6.8% compared with October 2025, yet it fell 0.7% month-over-month, reflecting a waning momentum as a wave of off-lease EVs entered the market. By contrast, the Non-EV Index climbed 1.3% YoY and rose 0.7% from September, underscoring that fuel-efficiency and affordability remain decisive factors amid persistently high gasoline prices.
Manheim Market Report metrics
The Manheim Market Report (MMR) Three-Year-Old Index registered a 1.2% decline since the start of October, a rate slightly slower than the same period last year. Retention held at 98.9%, a tenth of a point lower than a year ago and four-tenths below September’s figure, while sales conversion edged up 0.3 points YoY but slipped 0.3 points since September. These numbers suggest that dealer activity is steady but not accelerating, supporting Gregory’s view that inventory tightening, rather than heightened buying enthusiasm, is the chief price driver.
Looking ahead, the early-October data set a more stable baseline than September’s volatile swing. However, the underlying challenges identified in the third quarter—rising interest rates and softer consumer sentiment—remain. Gregory cautions that some of the weakness expected for October may have already manifested in September, and only the full month’s results will reveal whether the market can sustain the current equilibrium.
