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ATLANTA, April 24, 2026 — Industry trackers are forecasting that April’s pace of auto purchases will largely resist the recent economic turbulence. Cox Automotive projects the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new-vehicle sales for April to land near 16.1 million, a slight downtick from March’s 16.3 million pace. On a month-over-month basis, sales volume is expected to decline roughly 1.9%, reflecting a small pullback after March’s activity.
Compared with the unusually elevated activity from last April — when vehicle purchases were lifted to about 17.1 million following tariff developments — the current forecast represents a 5.4% decline year over year. There are 26 selling days in April, unchanged from a year earlier and one day more than March, which helps normalize comparisons but does not erase the impact of broader headwinds such as geopolitical instability in the Middle East and higher fuel costs.
Market dynamics shaping April results
April’s sales picture is the result of opposing forces. On the negative side, rising gasoline prices and dampened consumer sentiment have weighed on buyer enthusiasm, and lingering economic volatility has introduced caution. Still, several factors have provided offsetting support: robust tax refunds this season have injected discretionary cash into households, while the U.S. equity market has recovered to record territory, bolstering wealth effects for some prospective buyers. The interaction of these elements has allowed the auto market to perform better than many observers initially anticipated.
Short-term outlook
Near-term expectations point to continued moderation rather than a sharp collapse. The forecasted SAAR of 16.1 million signals a market that is cooling from last year’s temporarily elevated level but still functioning with resilience. In the view of Cox Automotive’s senior economist, Charlie Chesbrough, buyers have not abandoned the market despite lower consumer confidence and surging fuel costs; instead, stimulus from refunds and gains in stock portfolios has helped sustain demand. This blended environment suggests the industry may see modest contractions in volume while remaining far from a crisis.
Factors to watch
Several variables could change the trajectory of sales in the coming weeks. Further swings in fuel prices would directly affect demand for different vehicle segments, while renewed financial market volatility could erode the equity-based support that helped lift purchases. Policy moves, shifts in lending conditions, and any escalation or de-escalation of global conflicts are additional catalysts to monitor. Dealers and manufacturers will be watching inventory flow, incentives, and consumer financing terms closely as they respond to evolving conditions.
About Cox Automotive and its data advantage
Cox Automotive positions itself as a leading provider of automotive services and technology, drawing on the largest collection of first-party data in the industry. The company processes about 2.3 billion online interactions each year and employs more than 29,000 people across five continents. Its portfolio includes well-known brands such as Autotrader, Kelley Blue Book, Manheim, vAuto, Dealertrack, NextGear Capital, CentralDispatch and Cox Fleet, enabling an end-to-end view of vehicle shopping, retailing and fleet operations.
Corporate context and contact
Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Atlanta-based, privately held Cox Enterprises, which reports approximately $23 billion in annual revenue. The company has also been recognized on Glassdoor lists for Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026, reflecting internal investment in talent and technology. For more information, visit coxautoinc.com or follow Cox Automotive on social media channels. Media inquiries may be directed to Mark Schirmer at 734 883 6346 or by email at [email protected].