The U.S. automotive landscape entered the final stretch of 2026 with a mixture of resilience and strain. While inventory levels have begun to normalize after two years of shortages, lingering inflation, high borrowing costs and wavering consumer confidence continue to tug at the market’s fundamentals. Industry watchers, analysts and dealer networks are all waiting for a key data point that could clarify whether the current slowdown is a temporary hiccup or a longer-term correction.
Live-timed release of the Q3 Cox Automotive Sales Forecast Update
On Thursday, September 24 at 11 a.m. ET, the Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team will publish its Q3 Cox Automotive Sales Forecast Update. The briefing will be delivered as a narrated slide deck accompanied by a PDF packet, rather than a real-time webcast, allowing journalists and interested parties to download the material at the scheduled moment. The update promises a fresh look at U.S. vehicle sales, a revision of full-year projections, and an exploration of macro-economic variables that have been reshaping demand. Contact information for the media liaison team is also provided: Mark Schirmer (734-883-6346, mark.schirmer@) and Dara Hailes (470-658-0656, dara.hailes@).
Dealer Sentiment Index reveals modest dip in optimism
The most recent Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index released on September 8, surveyed 929 dealers across the United States between July 22 and August 5. Of those, 501 were franchised operators while the remainder were independent shops. The index, which measures how dealers perceive the current market, fell to 41 points in Q3, down from 43 in the prior quarter and lingering below the neutral threshold of 50 that signals a broadly positive mood. A deeper dive shows that the new-vehicle sales sentiment slid to exactly 50, erasing the slight buffer that existed a year earlier (58) and dropping below the 53 recorded in Q2.
Affordability, interest rates and inflation dominate dealer concerns
Dealers cited a trio of macro-economic pressures as the chief culprits behind the softening outlook. First, inflation continues to erode disposable income, prompting price-sensitive shoppers to delay or downsize purchases. Second, the prevailing interest rates have risen to levels that elevate monthly loan payments, a factor explicitly mentioned by 34 % of respondents. Third, the As Mark Strand, deputy chief economist at Cox Automotive, explained, “Affordability continues to shape demand, with high interest rates and sustained inflation pressures on households keeping shoppers focused on monthly payments and lower-priced vehicles.”
Implications for traffic, inventory and the coming fall season
Despite the dip in sentiment, foot traffic at showrooms remains close to historic averages, according to the survey’s customer traffic index. The metric slipped two points to 34 in Q2 but still outperforms the figure from a year ago and sits near the long-term benchmark of 36. Franchised dealers reported a modest decline in both online engagement and in-person visits, whereas independent retailers observed steadier in-person traffic. Looking ahead, many respondents expressed optimism that the autumn model-year launch cycle could reinvigorate demand, especially as inventory levels improve for high-interest models like the Toyota RAV4, which has sustained strong summer demand despite limited supply.
When asked to rank the forces most affecting their business, 54 % of dealers pointed to the broader economy, up from 44 % a year earlier. Market conditions (42 %), interest rates (34 %), operating expenses (33 %) and the political climate (32 %) followed in that order. The confluence of these factors underscores why Cox Automotive’s full-year sales forecast, issued in January, already anticipated a modest 2.4 % contraction to 15.8 million units for 2026 compared with the 16.2 million projected for 2025. Affordability was identified as the primary driver of that downward adjustment.
Stakeholders—from manufacturers planning production runs to finance companies calibrating loan terms—will be watching the numbers closely to gauge whether the market will stabilize or if further corrective measures will be needed in the months ahead.
