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April 2025 sales forecast overview
As we delve into the automotive landscape of April 2025, it’s noteworthy that new vehicle shoppers have been actively engaging in the market. Motivated by rising concerns over potential tariffs and the implications for future pricing, consumers demonstrated a robust presence in showrooms during the early days of the month. According to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for new vehicle sales is projected to reach about 16.4 million units. This figure not only surpasses the 16 million pace recorded in April 2024 but also marks the strongest performance for this month since 2021.
However, it’s essential to recognize that while April’s sales pace is impressive, it reflects a notable decrease from March’s exceptional rate of 17.8 million. The latter part of April indicated signs of a cooling market, following a vigorous start. This month, characterized by 26 selling days—equal to last month and one more than the same period last year—will see new vehicle sales volume forecasted to increase by 4.6% year-over-year, despite a 12% decline from March’s totals.
Market dynamics and consumer behavior
Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox Automotive, emphasizes the challenges of predicting sales in today’s volatile market conditions. The market’s direction seems heavily influenced by evolving headlines from the White House, which adds layers of uncertainty for both consumers and manufacturers. The surge in March sales was largely attributed to apprehensions about future vehicle prices due to tariffs, and this momentum carried into early April with similar vigor.
Nonetheless, the reality of inventory levels cannot be ignored. Recent weeks have seen a significant decline in new vehicle inventory, which is likely to exert upward pressure on prices. As consumer confidence wanes amid rising economic concerns, the outlook for new auto sales appears more precarious going forward. If current policies remain in effect, it is anticipated that prices in the new vehicle market will noticeably increase in the upcoming months as more expensive models replace existing inventory that predates tariff impacts.
Inventory trends and implications
As of early March, new vehicle inventory across the United States stood at nearly 3 million units, translating to a measured days’ supply of 89. By early April, this inventory had dropped to 2.7 million units, with days’ supply decreasing to 70—a trend influenced by the brisk sales pace observed in the market. Continuing this downward trajectory, the days’ supply fell further to around 60 by mid-April, reflecting the ongoing sales momentum.
The official inventory data for April is expected to be released in early May, providing further insights into the state of the market. This continuous decline in inventory raises important questions about the sustainability of sales momentum and the subsequent impact on vehicle pricing. As we navigate these market dynamics, it becomes crucial for consumers and industry stakeholders alike to remain informed and adaptable to the changing landscape.
The role of Cox Automotive in the automotive ecosystem
Cox Automotive stands as a pillar within the automotive services and technology sector, boasting an impressive array of first-party data drawn from 2.3 billion online interactions each year. This comprehensive data enables the company to offer tailored solutions for a diverse range of stakeholders, including car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders, and fleet managers.
With a workforce exceeding 29,000 employees spread across five continents, Cox Automotive encompasses a portfolio of industry-leading brands such as Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, and Dealertrack®. As a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately held company with annual revenues of $22 billion, Cox Automotive remains dedicated to leveraging its extensive expertise and resources to navigate the complexities of the automotive market.
For media inquiries, Cox Automotive’s Economic and Industry Insights team is closely observing tariff developments and is committed to delivering timely analysis and insightful commentary as the situation evolves.